Co

Cobalt

The cathode stabilizer with the most concentrated — and scrutinized — supply chain in batteries.

Cobalt extends battery life and energy density by stabilizing nickel-rich cathode structures against degradation. It is also indispensable outside batteries: cobalt superalloys survive the hottest sections of jet engines, and cobalt compounds serve in catalysts, magnets, and tooling. But cobalt’s defining feature is where it comes from: the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the Democratic Republic of the Congo supplied 73% of mined cobalt in 2025, with much of its production recovered as a byproduct of copper mining.

Sources: USGS 2026

Key Applications

  • NMC/NCA battery cathodes for EVs and electronics
  • Superalloys for jet engine hot sections
  • Cemented carbides and tool steels
  • Catalysts, pigments, and permanent magnets (AlNiCo, SmCo)

Key Facts

Mined-supply leader
DRC (73% in 2025; USGS)
Production mode
Byproduct of Cu/Ni
Refining leader
China
Demand headwind
Cobalt-free LFP growth
Strategic exposure
Aerospace superalloys

Sources: USGS 2026

Market Dynamics

Cobalt is a byproduct metal: its supply responds to copper and nickel economics rather than its own price, which produces violent cycles. Prices spiked in 2017–18 on EV enthusiasm, then collapsed as DRC supply surged and battery makers engineered cobalt out of their chemistries. The rise of cobalt-free LFP batteries in China — now more than half of the EV market there — has capped demand growth, while high-nickel NMC chemistries keep shrinking cobalt content per cell. ESG scrutiny of artisanal mining in the DRC adds a compliance premium to responsibly sourced material.

Supply Chain

The chain runs narrow: DRC mines (dominated by Chinese-owned operations and Glencore) feed Chinese refineries, which produce most of the world’s refined cobalt chemicals. Indonesia has emerged as the fastest-growing alternative source, recovering cobalt from nickel HPAL operations. Western attempts to build independent supply focus on Canadian and Australian projects, recycling — which could supply a meaningful share of demand by the 2030s — and traceability programs that certify DRC material free of child labor.

Recent developments

Status checked 18 October 2026. ARECOMS suspended DRC cobalt exports on 22 February 2025; after successive extensions, the suspension ended on 15 October 2025 and was replaced by export quotas from 16 October. The IEA policy record lists a 2026 ceiling of 96,600 tonnes (87,000 tonnes base quota plus 9,600 tonnes strategic quota), with the same total set for 2027 subject to quarterly adjustments; the decision remains in force until further notice. On 12 August 2026, ARECOMS’s chair told Fastmarkets that the 2026–27 quotas were being maintained, while reductions could be considered if the supply-demand imbalance worsened.

Sources: IEA suspension recordIEA quota decisionFastmarkets, 12 August 2026

Outlook

Cobalt demand still grows with overall battery volumes, but more slowly than lithium or nickel as chemistry shifts reduce cobalt intensity. The DRC risk is no longer hypothetical: after suspending exports in 2025, the country replaced the ban with a quota system, while the USGS estimates the DRC supplied 73% of mined cobalt in 2025. Near-term availability therefore depends partly on quota releases and any regulatory revisions; ARECOMS said in August 2026 that reductions remained possible if market imbalance worsened. Recycling, stockpiling, and alternative suppliers remain longer-term responses to concentrated supply.

Sources: USGS 2026IEA quota decisionFastmarkets, 12 August 2026

Evidence snapshot

DRC share of mined cobalt supply

USGS estimates for 2025, published in its 2026 cobalt chapter. The USGS reports the DRC share as 73%; country and world production totals are rounded.

Mine production · 2025 estimates · metric tonnes of contained cobalt
Country or totalMine outputUSGS world share
Congo (Kinshasa)230,000 t73%
Indonesia44,000 t14%
World total (rounded)310,000 t—

Sources: USGS 2026

Sources and editorial method

Prepared by assay.earth from the references below. Reviewed . Production values are reported estimates; policy status is stated as of the review date.

  1. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 — Cobalt

    U.S. Geological Survey · February 2026; 2025 production estimates

    USGS estimates DRC mine output at 230,000 tonnes in 2025 and reports a 73% share of world mined cobalt. It also records the 2025 export suspension and the quota ceilings announced for 2026–27.

  2. Temporary suspension of cobalt export from the DRC

    International Energy Agency · Policy record; suspension timeline

    ARECOMS imposed the suspension on 22 February 2025, extended it to 15 October 2025, and announced that an export quota system would begin on 16 October.

  3. DRC ARECOMS Decision No. 004/2025 — Cobalt Quota System

    International Energy Agency · Policy record, updated 28 May 2026

    The 2026 quota is 96,600 tonnes: 87,000 tonnes base quota plus 9,600 tonnes strategic quota. The 2027 total is set at the same level, subject to quarterly adjustments; the decision remains in force until further notice.

  4. DRC may reduce cobalt quota if market needs rebalancing, ARECOMS says

    Fastmarkets · ARECOMS chair interview published 12 August 2026

    ARECOMS said the 2026–27 quotas were being maintained at that time, while retaining the option to reduce them if the supply-demand imbalance worsened.

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